ROB LONG FROM WNST 1570 AM in BALTIMORE...and CN8's OUT OF BOUNDS...CHECKS IN WITH HIS TAKE ON FANTASY FOOTBALL AND THE NFL

8.1.08

Least Valuable Player?

One could argue that the most popular position in the NFL, next to the quarterback position, is running back. From Jim Brown to Barry Sanders, running backs have been both graceful and dominant.

With popularity comes expectations, and running backs are asked to carry a sensational load throughout the years. While most NFL quarterbacks get hit fewer than half the amount of times in which they drop back to pass, and the numbers are even better for wide receivers per pass route, NFL running backs come into heavy contact on nearly every play. Either by carrying the football, play action, or blocking assignments, running backs draw violent collisions throughout the football game.

With defenders becoming stronger and faster, self-life for NFL running backs has shortened. Kansas City's Larry Johnson carried the ball nearly 800 times over a two-year period and one would argue that he'll never be the same running back. Priest Holmes, also of Kansas City, saw over 900 carries over a three-year span, and his career was never the same either.

Now, while there are exceptions, the rule today in the NFL suggests most running backs have about 800-900 carries at peak performance. After that, the great one's continue on to be better than average, and the average backs hold on to survive.

From 2001-03 Ahman Green carried the ball just over 900 times for over 4500 yards. Green also played in 46 out of a possible 48 regular season games. In the four years following that, Green played in only 40 games while compiling only 2,737 yards. He's has two 1,000 yard seasons, but has not been able to separate himself from the other average backs in the league since 2003. A host of injuries have sidelined Green and limited his opportunities and ability.

In some cases, that peak performance doesn't always come toward the beginning of  a back's career. Tiki Barber, formally of the New York Giants is exhibit A in this study. Barber carried the football only 629 times in the first five years of his 10-year NFL career.

However, during the final three seasons, he carried the ball over 1,000 times, which was nearly half of the 2,217 carries he had over the span of his career. Barber, due to not being the featured back in the Giants system, did not peak until the end of his career. Barber compiled nearly half of his career 10,000 yard plus total over that three-year period. Barber, maybe in his brilliance, retired at the top of his game.

Running backs such as Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders are rare. Guys who have carried the ball well over 300 times a year on numerous occasions. These were backs who repeated showed up for a 16-game schedule and carried the primary load for their respective teams. Even Jim Brown only carried the football over 300 times once and OJ Simpson did it only once. Much of that was probably due to Brown playing half his season with a 12-game schedule and the other half with a 14-game schedule, but the point remains. Today's featured backs are asked to do far more than at any point in NFL history. One could say that only the late, great Walter Payton carried such a heavy load for an extended period. Actually, Payton's number solidify him as the greatest running back in League history.

NFL Executives are examining the productivity and longevity of the true two-back system. Backs are care about being effective and withstanding a long career need to embrace this concept as well. It's time to swallow pride, and examine the facts.

So, as fantasy football fans prepare for the upcoming drafts, they may want to look at backs who carried heavy loads over a three year span, and get some reinforcement when drafting those guys. In other words, use caution when considering drafting Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, and even LaDainian Tomlinson. I'm not saying don't draft them, but you better have a real solid back-up.

7.21.08

I was in Bowie, Maryland on Sunday, enjoying a minor league baseball game with my family. We're eating ice cream, singing "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" and minding my business. The last thing I'm thinking about is the NFL. This is my last breath before the start of training camp. I realize, in less than 48 hours, the NFL will begin to take over in my life.

Just when I think I actually have a little less than 48 hours, my cell phone alert goes off. It appears the Washington Redskins have responded to the bad news of losing Phillip Daniels to a season ending knee injury.

Now, let's tell the whole story. Phillips is a 12-year veteran, who has never had more than nine sacks in a single season. Though he's done that twice, he hasn't done it since 2001. Daniels is 35 years-old. Why is there a spin on this trade? Why are the 'Skins telling people that Daniels injury is the reason this trade was done?

This is typical Daniel Snyder fantasy football. No, I'm not going to say that trading or Jason Taylor is a bad trade, this is the second trade the team has made for a defensive end in two months. Yes, Taylor is much better than Erasmus James, but what's the plan here?

The Redskins have teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants in there division. They need to figure out a way to stop the pass rush of those two teams. Even though Michael Strahan has retired, the Giants still have the likes of Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck combined, who combined for 23 sacks. Dallas, on the other hand, have DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis, who combined for 26.5

Again, the Redskins have built a reputation on going out and landing the "big name," and not necessarily the best player for their needs. Taylor is the latest in the "big name" game for Snyder and the 'Skins. They do have a quarterback, who wasn't exactly impressive, even before his injury. They answered that by drafting Colt Brennan in the sixth round. So, either Campbell is the real deal, or they'll have to depend on Todd Collins again.

The NFC East is Dallas' division and the Giants are the defending World Champs. When you're in a division with these two teams, any moves you make should go toward making you better than those two teams. Not just now, but better in the big picture. Even though Taylor told the 'Skins he did not need to negotiate and he would play the final two years of his contract, we've seen athletes waiver over the past four months. If Taylor's actions were just to get attention to get out of Miami, what will he do if it's discovered that Washington isn't in the same class as either Dallas or the Giants? Taylor may begin to hear the calling of his other interests, again.

In professional sports, you have to take chances if you want to win it all. The Redskins have never been a team who's not willing to take big Hall of Fame chances. You can name them: Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Irving Fryar, Andre Reed, among others. Just part of the Redskins past of putting together their fantasy football team.

Skin' fans better hope they're getting a Jason Taylor who resembles the All-Pro defensive end from Miami. Nothing less will do. This is an all or nothing deal for the Redskins. Taylor can't give them eight sacks. Taylor can't play in 10 games. Jason Taylor has to go into the Nation's Capital as a defensive stud. If he doesn't make the 'Skins better, the deal is a bust.

Once upon a time in the NFL, teams could build with dominant defenses and running game en-route to a Super Bowl title. For example; the Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl 35 with that recipe. Two years later, the Tampa Bay Bucs did it the same way. I hope you have DVD’s of the way those two teams did it, because I doubt you'll see it done that way for a long time in the NFL.

In every era, there's a team that's labeled with the term "Dynasty." That team, the "Dynasty," serves as the template to success in the NFL. At least until another "Dynasty" emerges.

The NFL has tweaked and manipulated the way the game is to be played, seemingly to ensure that the Super Bowl champion represents a well-balanced team. That's what the New England Patriots were during three seasons in which they won a Super Bowl. That brings about a question; what came first, the chicken or the egg? Naturally, the answer is, you cannot have one without the other. The NFL's vision was perfect for the Patriots, and the Patriots were perfect for the NFL's vision.

As much as fans in Baltimore loved to cheer their dominant defense led by all-world linebacker, Ray Lewis, the Ravens had nine games in which they failed to reach the 20 point total. That led Baltimoreans wondering why the team was not given more nationally televised games the following year. The answer is simple, that brand of football wasn't appealing to the national audience. The average fan looks at offense as both entertaining and dominant. Scoring 40 points on a team is equal to having your way with them. Winning 10-3 is seen as boring.

In 2004, the Indianapolis Colts did whatever they wanted to their opponents on offense. Peyton Manning threw for over 4,500 yards, 49 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. The problem they had was a defense that was ranked 29th in the league. The Colts found themselves at times having to score 40 points to win and losing games in which they scored 30 points. They also found themselves coming up short in the AFC-Playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Patriots, who ranked seventh in offense and ninth in defense, won their third Super Bowl to complete the "Dynasty." The Pats performed the perfect balancing act while winning shoot-outs with over 40 points as well as pitcher's duals while only scoring one touchdown. The Ravens failed to make the play-offs with a 9-7 record while ranking sixth in defense but only 31st in offense.

The Colts, who have been victimized by the Patriots' "Dynasty" more than any other team, finally reached that pinnacle after the 2006 season. They also better reflected that balanced team. While ranking third in offense and only 21st in defense, the Colts defense showed dominance while forcing 26 turnovers. The defense also stepped it up when stud safety Bob Sanders returned from injury.

In 2007, the Patriots ranked in the top five in both offense and defense. Those stats allowed them to run over everyone in the regular season as they reached the Super Bowl undefeated. However, they faced a team that used the regular season to work toward becoming a balanced team for the play-offs. The New York Giants used a solid passing game, an effective running game, and a dominant pass rush to hide a deficient secondary. One part complimented another part for the Giants. They used that to knock off the Patriots to become Super Bowl champions.

That's the way to win in the NFL today, and the way the NFL wants you to win. Ignoring one major aspect of the game is not good for the game. A message of "We don't need to be effective on offense” or "We don't need to be effective on defense" is bad for the game. It's only poetic justice that a team needs to address both sides of the ball, along with special teams and perform at least accurately, to win it all.

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