2.4.12

THE 2012 DRAFT PART TWO, TEAM NEEDS

What teams do on draft days sometimes is not only surprising but impossible to understand or predict. There have been many first round shockers and trades every year. Teams either don’t watch their own teams or evaluate their team needs wisely. Do they actually study all games during the year or do they not understand how important picking the right players to fill their needs is an important element in having a winning team and being in the playoffs. Each year eight to ten teams change coaches many also change management leaders and this all happens only a few months before free agency that begins early March this year. Miss managing the cap, not resigning their best free agents and signing quality ones from other teams are usually signs that their team will not, cannot win games and make the playoffs. The way they conduct player personnel issues from year to year usually shows how good or bad a team will be each year. Many never improve because they continue to make the same mistakes in all areas year after year.

 If you study what teams that consistently win and make the playoffs and what teams  that do not, one factor stands out, bad draft choices in early rounds year after year. You cannot win in the NFL without a top quarterback, that is a fact, not a myth. Having quality players in their offensive and defensive lines is where all the action starts and ends in most games. If you control the line of scrimmage with a quality NFL quarterback you win most games most years and make the playoffs. Adding receivers, running backs, linebackers and defensive secondary are additions needed but these players can be added in lower rounds three thru seven most of the time. Stats show most, a high percentage, of players, drafted at wide receiver, running back, and defensive secondary lines are unsuccessful players in the NFL when drafted in rounds one and two, if they develop at all. If they do eventually start and star it usually occurs in years three thru five with experience after playing part time at first. The best way to find pieces that make your roster successful a playoff team is add experienced players in these positions in free agency each year. This requires a team have cap money available to spend.

 Then management must choose the right, most experienced, quality players that best fit their needs. Once a quarterback and quality young lineman is drafted year after year, adding good free agents allows you to be a consistent winner. There of course are exceptions at the other positions in the draft but it is rare. The best wide receivers now in the NFL, the Johnson’s ( Texans and Lions), running backs like Ray Rice all started slowly in first year(s) and running backs like Foster of Texans was not even drafted. But the problem that teams drafted early usually find is, they have so many holes to fill and make many bad choices in the draft year after year trying to find players of need in early rounds. Some take best players on their board however, that player may have been misevaluated by their scouts and management team.  Here are team needs of first ten drafting teams baring any trades.

1. Indy- With their injured star quarterback (a guy named Manning) and all that has been written about his health problems, it is a no brainer that their top need is a quarterback in the draft (Luck) and that will be their first selection.

 Round two and three will be interesting selections. The Colts are more likely to trade down with their second pick to add more selections than any other round. But their needs are many on both interior lines. A center, guard, a big nose tackle and defensive secondary help also are needs.

2. St Louis- With a new quality coach in Jeff Fischer this team will get better faster than expected with the right free agent signings and a smart draft since they have a good young quarterback (Bradford).  Teams that need a qb will attempt to make a trade and the Rams will listen. The Browns at four, Washington at six will be best teams for Rams to deal with because of where they are in selections in the draft. But if Rams stay at their second slot then a top pass rusher, receivers, linebackers and offensive lineman are all positions of needs. Much depends if they acquire some of these positions of needs in free agency.  A trade is very possible in round one at this selection.

3. Minnesota- They surprised everyone in last years’ draft with selecting their qb (Ponders) and after another bad season continued to surprise.

By keeping their head coach there is no reason not to make wise decisions in free agency and the draft. With needs at offensive line and especially guard and left tackle and defensive back a free agent guard like Ben Grubbs or defensive back would fill important needs.  This may be their first moves before the draft even begins. But fate in the draft and a little luck will be a big help. If the Rams stay at their selection and Baylor qb (Griffin) still there then the trading war and bidding war is on with Skins and Browns maybe even Miami.

Cleveland- If their management team goes in any direction other than QB as their number one need either in free agency or the draft this team is in for many more lean years. They could trade with Skins if Washington thinks  Vikings or Rams wanted  too much in a trade for a top qb and still  the Browns could still get a decent one at the sixth selection(from Skins trade) if they can’t sign Flynn from Green Bay if that is who they want. The Browns have many needs on offense in the secondary so trading down would be a smart move if they can find a team.

 If Miami at the ninth selection cannot get Flynn in free agency they could be a trading partner with Browns too and even if Skins get Griffin, Miami may want to consider moving up to this selection.

5. Tampa Bay- They will big spenders in free agency and must get interior lineman in the draft. Left tackle is there biggest need. Jared Gaither if Chargers have not signed him will get that big deal he has been looking for from somebody. Gaither and Grubbs on the left side of one line that needs these positions filled will not be surprising if a team does make those free agency moves.

6. Washington- By the time they are on the clock a lot of their questions at least a qb will have been answered. They must add a qb either in free agency or a top one in the draft. Quality lineman are needed, receivers and young linebackers in the middle are also important needs.

7. Jacksonville- Free agency will be important for the Jags with so many needs too. Depending on free agent signings, offense first priority with receivers. .

8. Carolina- Defense is where this team needs the most help and they will go after best player on their board that is available when they draft. Free agent signings will play a part.

9. Miami- With Green Bay offensive play caller now the coach, in free agency look for Miami do go after many of Green Bay’s free agents including Flynn their qb. Would Dolphins try to move up to trade with Rams or Vikings and make a blockbuster draft trade as Jets did a few years ago or do they land Flynn? With many needs on offense Miami will also be a big free agent player.

Buffalo- Are the Bills close to making the playoffs. Do they only need a few pieces? Many experts feel they are still many players away in this tough division from any playoff appearance. Injuries hurt them a lot last year. Pass rushers, linebackers and offensive needs are all needed.

That is first ten team needs in the draft. Part three with next 10 coming soon.

RAVE REVIEW BY JOHN SCHULTHEIS

IS THIS THE YEAR?

 As four teams and their fans celebrate and move on to the championship round of the NFL playoffs, many Raven fans now wonder what the final outcome of the 2011/2012 season will bring. All the hard work after a long labor dispute has resulted with only the Patriots and Ravens left standing in the AFC for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Many last minute wise  free agent signings by Ozzie with an offensive starting left tackle, a veteran future center that had to play both guard positions and earlier veteran backup players like running back Ricky Williams and most importantly the best fullback in football (Leach) have allowed this team to continue to win this season. Ray Rice had another good season and rookie receiver (Smith) along with second year tight ends (Dickerson and Pita) became important parts of a still struggling offense. On defense Suggs and Webb had outstanding years too. Even with many key injuries to starting veteran players on all units (Grubbs, Yanda, Lewis, Evans, Carr, Reed, Cundiff) this team won key games when it counted most.

Starting with an opening week win against the Steelers that coupled with another win against them later and wins against the Jets, Texans (now twice), Bengals and the 49ers now has led this team to the AFC title game. . The defense was the key factor in most games the team won with both special teams and offense struggling at times. But it is a team game and fans should be so proud of what this team accomplished this year.

Playing a tough road game in New England now lies ahead for the Ravens against one of the top quarterbacks and passing offenses in the league. The New England home record matches Baltimore’s and to make it to the Super Bowl the Ravens must play their best playoff game ever.

The Ravens must control the ball and the clock with Ray Rice running and must stop all the short and medium quick passes that Brady completes. A stat worth mentioning here is when Flacco throws 35 passes or more the Ravens record is 9 wins, 9 losses.

 A better pass rush is needed that was not seen in the playoff game against the Texans. A strong inside the tackles push up the middle forcing Brady to be uncomfortable and having to move out of the pocket would help create turnovers and a Raven win.  The Raven linebackers cannot cover their tight ends so extra defensive backs or safeties that are quicker and more physical must play in defensive schemes. Blitzing Brady on his quick passes will not work; defensive lineman must put their hands up and attempt to block the passing lanes. Better special teams play and a few turnovers, a key in this game, could lead to the Ravens being in this year’s Super Bowl.

The fans, coaches, and the players have gotten their wish, win one game and you are in the Super Bowl!!

RAVENS REVIEW BY JOHN SCHULTHEIS

THEN THEY WERE EIGHT

So as wild card weekend has come and gone and the old men in Pittsburgh lose to a far less talented but younger Denver team, eight teams are left in the tournament to advance to the Super Bowl. The Ravens and Patriots have very winnable games but dangerous teams, Denver and the Texans that if both (Ravens, Patriots) do not play quality games could be upset.  In the NFC, upsets also could take place with the Saints playing on grass, outdoors, in San Francisco and they do not play well, stats say, in either condition. Green Bay is at home against a Giant team that is playing their best football all year both offensively and defensively. However the only game that matters in Baltimore is the Ravens in their first home game since they lost to Indy a few years ago.

 How good are the Texans and what must the Ravens do to win and advance to the conference championship game? The Raven fans will play a role in this crucial game that both Harbaugh and Flacco must make the right decisions.

First and foremost the Ravens must stop the Texans running game with their very good running backs in Foster and Tate. Their running game was the key with their rookie qb Yates last weekend in beating the Bengals. The Texans passing game has not under this rookie qb, been very good, however they do have a top receiver in Johnson and a quality TE in Daniels that can hurt you. So stop the run, force the rookie to throw, have a good pass rush and turnovers will happen and a win is likely!

On offense the Ravens must play well against a quality defense that even without their best pass rusher has played well. The Ravens must protect Flacco and he must take care of the ball and not have turnovers in interceptions or fumbles. Ray Rice must have a good game and CAM MUST STAY WITH THE RUN ALL GAME! Flacco must play well early, score TD's not field goals and be consistent and accurate with quick releases to ALL receivers. The Ravens need more offensive sets with 3 wide receivers, less two tight ends.

Most important, in order to win this crucial game, the Ravens must not allow the Texans to be in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter. The Ravens have their best chance in recent years to make it to the Super Bowl.  The Ravens can achieve all their goals they set for themselves in training camp. As Ray Lewis says, these opportunities do not come along each year, so play you’re hardest and best to win a championship! It is up to veterans to provide leadership and all players on this team to do their part to get to the Super Bowl this year.

RAVE REVIEW BY JOHN SCHULTHEIS     

ONE, TWO, THREE CHAMPS!

Now that the regular season is over fans in 12 cities are still watching their teams play while 20 others are again disappointed. When the season began after a long, tough labor dispute and teams having little time to prepare for their season, not many could have predicted some of this year’s playoff teams. Three teams, the Bengals, Lions and Denver were nowhere on NFL experts radar charts to make the playoffs. None were thought to have any better than an 8-8 season record at best. That was supposed to give you no chance to make the playoffs but that is how many wins Denver had by season’s end and a division title. However on the final weekend, all lost their final game; however, all the other teams fighting to get in the playoffs lost too allowing them to back into a playoff game. The Bengals sneaked in even though the Titians won this weekend but with same won/ lost record the tie breaker of their head to head game with Bengals winning that one decided that the Bengals were in and Titians were out.

 When people say there are no must wins early in the season, one only has to look at how the Bengals made it in the playoffs.  Winning more division games gets you a division title but winning games in your conference are also must wins when wild card seeding is done at the end of the year. AFC conference that once had more the top teams now does not have as many quality teams as the NFC. The schedule and times for all playoff games is now set and is as follows:

Saturday Jan 7^th- AFC-  Bengals at Houston 430P.M.- Could be the battle of rookies quarterbacks but  it is the game between two teams that are struggling with many losses at the end of the season and their fight to move on and play another week.

Saturday Jan 7^th- NFC- Lions at Saints 8 p.m.- An interesting matchups of two teams that score at will with great passing offenses and have the ability to come back to win any game no matter how far behind they maybe.

Both games on NBC.

Sunday Jan 8^TH- NFC- Falcons at Giants 1 p.m. - An interesting matchup of a team, the Giants, that had to win at the end just to make the playoffs. Last year there was a team like that also with a quality quarterback, the Green Bay that won it all.  Fox network.

Sunday Jan 8^th- AFC- Steelers at Broncos 430 p.m.- A team that won 12 games in the Steelers that won more games than 3 playoff teams and two division winners against a team that has been losing that backed into a division title and a home game. CBS network.

The following weekend scheduled with top seeds playing and their times and places also were announced. However what teams that may be playing from wild card matchups against which top seeds must be decided.

After this this weekend’s games, the lowest remaining seed will play the number one seed and the other winning team plays the second seed.  That schedule looks like this:

Saturday Jan 14^th- NFC- Highest remaining seed at   49ers (second seed) 430 P.M.-  With their lighting problems at San Francisco in their last prime time game the league wants this game in the daylight on the west coast. Fox network.

Saturday Jan14th- AFC- Lowest remaining seed at Patriots (top seed) 8 p.m. This could be an interesting game with whoever the team the Patriots may face might be. CBS network.

Sunday Jan15th- AFC –Highest remaining seed at 2^nd seed Baltimore Ravens 1.p.m. CBS. Ravens getting best top slot for them and their fans. A chance to rest their many injured players and fans having  a great early time on last game of the weekend in the AFC. CBS network.

Sunday Jan15th-NFC-Lowest remaining seed at Green Bay (top seed) 430 p.m. - This is also exactly what green Bay team and fans wanted, a late game at home in the cold weather.

 So now with all schedules set how does it look for the Ravens chances to get to the Super bowl this year? It is as easy as one, two, and three.

One- wins first playoff game on Sunday January 15^th at 1 p.m. - Who might be their opponent that weekend? The wild card teams that are playing the previous weekend are Steeler at Denver which unless a miracle happens should again bring the Ravens face to face with their favorite rival. The other AFC wild card game features six seed the Bengals and Houston. However Raven fans will be rooting for Houston to win that game, why? Because then the lowest seed likely, Pittsburgh, would then face Patriots at New England The Ravens would then likely, play Houston in Baltimore. Let’s hope Bengals keep playing worse than the Texans. Of course no one can predict what teams will win wild card weekend and the Ravens are just happy to have a home game, a week off and a chance to advance another week on their path to their goal, a Super Bowl.

Two- After winning their first playoff game they then can advance to step two. It is possible in step two If the Patriots lose the Ravens would have another home game. Only if New England wins their first game will Ravens not have a home game on their journey to the Super Bowl.

Three- If the Ravens reach the third step that means they are in the Super Bowl. What a season this could be if they can advance this far.  It is that simple one, two and three and just beat the NFC team and you are Super Bowl champs!

Rave Review by John Schultheis

The Ravens have a lot to play for Sunday

With the Raven game now moved to a 4:15 start time Sunday against the Bengals and most of the nation watching we will see how good this mystery team is this season. Which team and quarterback and offensive game planning coach will show up Sunday? The Ravens are in the playoffs but a loss Sunday allows the Bengals into the playoffs as the 6^th seed and moves the Ravens down to 5^th seed. This would mean no home games and no week off to rest their many injured players that has so many doubtful starters that may not be able to play even this Sunday in this crucial game.  David Reed kick returner(out for the season),Yanda starting guard with a rib injury, Boldin wr receiver knee are out with  Carey Williams db ,Cundiff kicker, Redding dt doubtful and Carr db, Ray Lewis mlb, Webb db still not 100%. Since this coaching staff along with the front office has not done their earlier season homework again this year with no quality signings of enough reserves on the offensive line especially or drafting young players. It has now come back to maybe affecting their run for a Super Bowl.

Raven reserve players that may now have to start are not either playing the right positions  (right guard) or are quality substitutes that now must play well in an important late season game. If one more offensive lineman goes down the Ravens are really in a bad position and Grubbs with a toe, Burke with shoulder and knee could be hurt and out at any time. The drafting of players like Adam Terry, Oniel Cousins and offensive tackle Reid this year with no quality earlier picks at offensive tackle, guard or center in recent years except Michael Oher has made the team pick up last minute older veterans and no quality backups. None of their  top picks in Cody defensive tackle ,Kindle, and so far Jimmy Smith have looked like quality player  replacement starters in the NFL and these high picks must perform like Ray Rice and Wide receiver Torre Smith have. The Ravens have gotten by with no replacements for years and their mistakes have gone unnoticed by local media and fans. However as I pointed when the NFL schedule was released having an earlier bye week and all these straight games would be costly by seasons’ end.

Somehow the Ravens must find a way to win no matter who plays Sunday because without that week off and second seed a chance to get to the Super Bowl appears unlikely though possible.

Cam Cameron now must design a game plan for the Bengals quality defense that now includes receivers (Evans, Doss, Williams) that have not played most of the year. Joe Flacco must find a way this Sunday, to find his new receivers quickly from the shot gun and throw more accurate passes. This will   be the teams and coaches greatest challenge ever in a regular season ending game that means so much. Many of the injured will try to play but Harbaugh, not the player ,should weight risk and reward knowing even with a 5th seed, the Ravens  still have a chance to get to the Super Bowl but losing valuable starters if they are hurt worse and cannot play in the playoffs would be a bad decision.

With so much at stake and so many injured players, it’s time for Joe Flacco to lead this team the way a top 7 NFL quarterback should.

RAVE REVIEW BY JOHN SCHULTHEIS

IT IS TIME TO MOVE ON

With two games remaining the Ravens focus now must be preparing to win both remaining games to achieve a first or second seed in the playoffs and a bye the first week. A top two seeding gives them at least one home game in the playoffs. It is likely that the Ravens now, thanks to the Steelers playing so badly and losing Monday night have a chance to be division winners. The Steelers if Ravens win out will become the fifth seed with no home games.  Whoever is fifth seed (Steelers likely) will play the first weekend with no weeks off against the fourth seed, the division winner with the worse won-lost record. The Ravens with wins against Browns and Bengals will get at least a second seed  as long as they win as many games as the other division winner Houston, who will third seed and play wild card weekend with no weeks off.

 The fifth seed will face the west AFC division winner one of three teams; Denver, Oakland or San Diego. Denver with 8 wins has a one game lead, an easier schedule and with a win on Christmas Eve has the edge.  If the Patriots get the number one seed and Baltimore holds on to the second seed then they will face the winner of that first playoff wild card game between Pittsburgh and fourth seed division winner in Baltimore.  Pittsburgh is likely that team.  If Ravens get the number one seed they then play the winner of sixth seed (either Jets or Bengals most likely still undetermined) and third seed division winner Houston. So Ravens have a lot to play for and a top number one seed would be wonderful. It would mean the Ravens with a week off and home field advantage in all playoff games would only have to face either Patriots or Steelers the two toughest experience teams with top quarterbacks in the championship game.

 As second seed they are likely going to have to win games against both Pittsburgh (at home) and Patriots on the road.

 The Ravens who now are again in charge of their own destiny because of 49er win over Steelers would only have to win four games, maybe  three at  home (Browns in regular season and two playoff teams) to get to the Super Bowl. How quickly things can change in the NFL! We know that the Ravens must take one game at a time; however, fans should know what lies ahead if this team wins out. It means a division title and a bye week along with home game(s) and raises their hopes of getting to a Super Bowl this year.

So what should the Ravens do with their injured players in the final two weeks while preparing for the playoffs?  With 10 wins the Ravens will play the Browns on Christmas Eve and will be playing as many starters that are possible the rest of the year.

 So what is the Ravens outlook in the playoffs now? I doubt the Ravens have another misstep and lose either of the final two regular season games after Sunday’s poor performance that should have taught them a valuable lesson. Even with a high seed and maybe all home games in the playoffs it is still possible to not reach the Super Bowl with just one more bad game.  A fourth playoff appearance in as many years is a great achievement.

This year thanks to some breaks along the way with two weeks to go has given this team their best chance to have home playoff game(s) and a return to the Super Bowl. Raven fans should be very proud of what these players, coaches and front office has achieved once again. Now all that is left is to finally reach the next step, a Super Bowl victory.

RAVE REVIEW BY JOHN SCHULTHEIS

RAVENS MUST WIN OUT OR FACE NO HOME GAMES

As the Ravens season is now reduced to  a three game “Must win” each game season to get home games in the playoffs, one must wonder, how good is this team  and how far will they go in the playoffs? With the Steelers constantly winning each week it keeps the pressure on this Raven team to continue to win each week. It now appears with only three games left, the Ravens will be either the division winner and a 2^nd  or 3^rd at worse seed with a home game in the playoffs  and also have the possibility of the top seed and all home games in the playoffs or at worse, a fifth seed wild card team with no home games. The only way a fifth seed is likely  to get a home game is if all top four division winners lose their playoff games and then the AFC championship game is here against the other wild card sixth seed. If Ravens win out they will be the top AFC seed, have a bye in the first playoff week and have their two playoff games at home leading to the Super Bowl .If they win 12 games, Patriots and Texans could have more wins (13) and have top two seeds in the playoffs and the Ravens then would not get a first week bye in the playoffs but a home game against a wild card team fifth seed.  Only top two seeds get byes.

 But if Texans and Ravens tie for total wins the Ravens have the tie breaker by beating them to get the 2^nd seed. There are so may possible endings to the 2011 season but one thing we know, the Ravens have made the playoffs now for the last four years unless they lose all three remaining games and all possible wild card teams especially Titians win all remaining games.

Yes there are two tough road games remaining, a west coast road trip late Sunday night at San Diego and a final game at Cincy against a good Bengal team that lost with two seconds left last week. Sandwiched in between after a Sunday late game is a Christmas Eve game on a short week with the Browns at home. The hope is Ray Lewis returns this week and at some point veteran db Christ Carr will reappear.  Ravens ace punt returner has gotten a toe injury and may be lost for a few weeks. His skills on special teams and his play this year as a defense back have been outstanding.

It also times to give several players credit for their outstanding play all year. Corey Redding has had a pro bowl season and has added the veteran leadership and outstanding play needed in the pass rush and in the middle of the line. Carey Williams has developed as a quality cover corner and with Webb and rookie Jimmy Smith getting better each game has stopped the talk of how bad this defensive group was supposed to be this year. The steady play of linebackers Johnson, Ellerbe and Kruger has again made this defense along with veteran free agent safety Pollard a top five defense. Terrell Suggs should deserve high recognition as defensive player of year and has a chance to break the Ravens all time one season sack record. On Offense rookie wide receiver with six tds so far, is only one behind Jones (Falcons) as rookies with most td catches this year.

  Ray Rice again has had an outstanding season in the last year of a contract that pays him very little compare to the average of over 7 million dollars that top running backs receive. The new free agent fullback (Leach) is everything the Ravens have hoped and veteran backup Ricky Williams has done a good job when called on all year. Joe Flacco who now has thrown for over 3,00 yards for his fourth straight year and again has most likely lead the Ravens to their fourth straight playoff year has had a steady but