02.26.09

THE COMBINE: OFFENSIVE PERFORMERS

WITH THE COMBINE NOW CONCLUDED AND  ALL SCOUTS AND FRONT OFFICE PERSONEL NOW HOME TO CONCENTRATE ON FREE  AGENT SIGNINGS LET THE MARCH MADNESS NFL STYLE BEGIN.

 I  AM READY TO DO MY LATEST MOCK DRAFT BEFORE ANY FREE AGENTS HAVE SIGNED BUT ANY MOCK DRAFT BY ANYONE IS JUST FUN AND A BIG GUESSING GAME.DOING IT NOW OR AFTER FREE AGENT SIGNINGS DOES NOT MATTER. AFTER SOME TEAMS HAVE MADE SOME SIGNINGS IT JUST BECOMES A DIFFERENT GUESSING GAME. A TEAM MAY SIGN A LINEBACKER IN FREE AGENCY BUT STILL NEED ANOTHER LINEBACKER FOR THE FUTURE. TEAM NEEDS CHANGE VERY LITTLE AND WHAT A MANGEMENT TEAM DEEMS AS THEIR BEST PLAYER ON THEIR BOARD IS  STILL ANYONE’S GUESS AND PICKING  THE EXACT PLAYERS IN ROUND ONE IS PURE LUCK AT BEST FOR US MOCK DRAFTERS.

 COMBINE RESULTS IN THREE CATAGORIES SEEM TO BE WHAT MOST NFL TEAMS CONCETRATE ON AS THEY RATE EACH PLAYER. THE BEST TESTS  THAT MOST TEAMS USED ARE, SPEED AT ALL SKILLED POSTIONS, STRENTH IN LINEMAN POSITIONS AND LINEBACKERS, SOME USE DEFENSIVE BACKS IN THE BENCH PRESS TOO AND ALL LIKE THE SHUTTLE TEST TIMES. THE COMBINE RESULTS IS ABOUT 20% OF WHAT TEAMS BUILD THEIR DRAFT BOARDS ON. INTERVIEWS, BACKGROUND CHECKS, BOWL GAMES (MOSTLY PRACTICE AND DRILLS BEFORE THE GAMES), COLLEGE GAME FILM (ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT GAMES) AND COLLEGE PRO DAY (MOSTLY PLAYERS THAT DID NOT WORKOUT AT THE COMBINE OR WERE NOT INVITED), ALL PLAY IMPORTANT PARTS IN THE FINAL DECISIONS OF HOW TEAMS RATE ALL PLAYERS AND PLACE THEM ON THEIR DRAFT BOARDS. HOW EACH TEAM SELECTS THEIR PLAYERS ON DRAFT DAY FROM THEIR BOARDS IS INTERESTING AND EACH TEAM’s METHODS VARY. TEAMS HAVE DIFFERENT PLAYERS RATED DIFFERENTLY AND EVEN INSIDE THEIR OWN ORGANIZATION DON’T ALWAYS AGREE WHO IS THE BEST PLAYER AT EACH POSTION.WITH ALL THAT IN MIND WHAT PLAYERS DID WELL AT THIS YEARS COMBINE?

 THE COMBINE RESULTS IN 2009

The QUARTERBACKS-

Nobody really cares what times in the 40 yard dash quarterbacks (QBS) usually run, in fact most QBS have not done this test up until reason years when some have begun to participant but it really shows teams very little about the skill levels of these players in these positions. What kind of time do you think John Unitas, Dan Marino or Joe Montana would have run and what would it have said?
The neat fact about these three great players is that nobody on draft day wanted them early and many teams passed on them.

The only QB in the 2009 draft that his times mattered was Pat White of WVA because many teams projected him as their third QB on their roster but an important player in the new thing in the NFL, the “Wildcat” offense. White’s time of 4.55 was outstanding. Many teams were hoping he would participant in the pass receiver drills but he refused. He wants to play QB in the NFL but most teams have rejected that idea so far.

This is not considered a strong quarterback draft class. Most of the top QBS in this draft are not seniors. Stats in past years have shown that most QBs (like wide receivers) coming out early are less likely to succeed in the NFL.

 Matthew Stafford of Georgia- Most scouts rate him the number one QB in this draft but although he has a strong arm is mature for his age; he is s still young and was not consistent in college in many skilled areas. He is considered a gamble for the Detroit Lions at the first selection in the draft especially getting paid over 30 million dollars of guaranteed money. One of the top offensive tackles like Jason Smith of Baylor or Eugene Monroe of VA  or a skilled linebacker like Wake Forest outstanding player Aaron Curry would be  better choices here because they are players that may develop faster and play longer in the league but Detroit must decide if a young unproven QB with less college experience is worth the gamble.

 Mark Sanchez USC- Mark was told by his college coach (Pete Carroll, an ex-NFL coach) that it would have been better to stay in school. He is considered the next highly rated QB in this draft to Stafford. If Stafford is  a gamble as the first selection Sanchez is a real gamble if selected in any of the top ten positions in this draft. But Kansas City passed over all QBS last year and may be thinking long and hard about Sanchez if Stafford goes to the Lions at the first selection.

Josh Freeman Kansas State – Josh who is most likely a second round pick and is not projected as an early starter in the NFL would be a good choice for the Bears, Vikings, Tampa Bay in round two... He has good size and skills but also not a senior and must be considered a project for a year or two.

Nate Davis Ball State- Nate is another junior coming out early and another late second round pick and needs to develop at the NFL level.

Many other QBS in this draft will get drafted in late rounds as Ravens Troy Smith was and many will be disappointed that they may not get drafted at all.

WIDE RECEIVERS-

Running the fastest times ever as a group makes this group an interesting selection by most teams in this years draft especially since 8 of the fastest times were run by receivers not considered by most as top five receivers. There are many middle of the road future NFL receivers available in this draft. Some may one day be very good wide receivers (WR) and develop but most likely will not start for their NFL teams next year and will be chosen in later rounds. Some may become good value for their teams as well as good NFL players in time. All five top rated WR's are juniors.

The top rated player, Michael Crabtree did not run because of   an injured foot discovered at the combine. He needs an operation and is trying to decide to have it now or try running before the operation. The question becomes how important is his 40 yard time and would it hurt his early first round draft status if he does not run? A reason to run the 40 yard dash was made clear in this years combine, by defensive back Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State. He was considered in the top 2-3 players at his position in this draft class but ran a below par time of  around 4.7-4.8 which is considered by scouts very poor for his position. Unless he improves greatly at his pro college day he will most likely lose millions of dollars just by running that time, so this test does affect players and where they will be selected and how much money they will make.
 
Many scouts are now projecting him as a safety rather than a cover corner because of his lack of speed to cover NFL receivers. He may now be a lower draft selection in round one and could but not likely fall out of round one entirely. As far as Crabtree goes, all NFL teams have his college game tapes and he most likely ran some 40 yard tests in college. Most feel he will still be the first receiver selected early in round one. But if he waits much longer than next week to get the operation he will most likely not be able to run before draft day.

Other fast skilled junior receivers coming out include:

Jeremy Maclin Missouri- Jeremy was not in the top ten fastest times but his size and ball catching ability along with his route running has most teams rating him as the second best receiver in this draft. With less speed he is more likely considered by most scouts as a second receiver on many NFL teams. The question scouts are asking and teams selecting in the draft must answer is, can Jeremy Maclin be a #1 receiver on an NFL team instead of a #2(which is usually the case when times the 40 yard time is over 4. to 4.6 range).The teams then must decide is he worth millions of dollars early in round one to play that position and be their first draft pick in this draft?  If a team thinks he is only a #2 receiver he may drop down in round one. With the red flag of being only a junior and slower 40 time most teams may think he will not be  a top 10 draft selection but will go in selections 12-20 if a team wants to gamble in the first round and pay him  that kind of money as a #2 receiver.

Percy Harvin Florida-The main concern with Harvin is being injured and endurance to play a lot on an NFL team. His 40 time of 4.4 was outstanding and his explosive possibilities are many. Most scout’s think he will be a Reggie Bush type pro player with kick return skills too. It’s hard to say how early in round one he may be selected. Many teams have his value rated differently on their draft boards. He is most likely not a top 10 selection but in the top 25 players to come off the board and whoever takes  him should consider how much he may play in their offense on a weekly bases.

Darious Heywood-Bey Maryland- Running the fastest time of 4.3 officially ( many scouts on their own clocks had him less than 4.3) he has improved his chances of being a first round  selection and may be even a middle first round selection depending on how the draft is going and what receivers are coming off the draft board early. His catching drills at the combine were very good and with that kind of speed he has improved his chances in this draft. I doubt he gets by Buffalo at #20 or the Eagles at 22 if the other three higher rated WR's are off the board (Crabtree, Maclin and Harvin).

But the most interesting thing is do teams like Maclin more than these two fast receivers? Who will be more productive over the long haul? Reports are teams are mixed in rating the top receivers in this draft since all have questions of some kind.

 Because fans are interested in speed here are the top ten top wide receiver officials combine times:

1. Darrius Heyward-Bey    4.3
2. Mike Wallace                 4.33
3. Johnny Knox                   4.34
4. Deon butler                      4.38
5, Mike Thomas                  4.40
6. Tiquan Underwood        4.41
7. Percy Harvin                  4.40
8. Demetrus Byrd               4.42
9. Louis Murphy                 4.43
10. Kenny McKinley          4.44

RUNNING BACK-
 
Not a highly rated group this year but some of the top ones will help several teams. The biggest problem with rookie running backs that play a lot early in their NFL careers is, most were usually injured and some like the Patriots Maroney have had reoccurring injuries that have slowed them down. McFadden Felix Jones and Ray Rice all missed important time for their teams this year. When you decide to draft a running back in the top 20 selections he should be able to play immediately for the kind of money that he will receive.
All five rated top running backs are also juniors.

Knowshon Monroe Georgia- Many scouts are mixed as to who's at the top in the running back class this year. Monroe did not come in the top ten in the 40 yard dash. We listed him first but our ratings really do not have one rated higher than another. It depends on each teams needs and the interview process and other factors teams use and how each team looks at each back.

Donald Brown Connecticut-  He is the fastest of all the top rated running backs with a 4.51 time in the 40 yard dash.  Coming from a smaller school makes him interesting decisions for teams looking to draft a running back in round one. The question will be will any team draft a running back in round one this year and who might that team be?

Chris Wells- Ohio State- A big powerful back with surprising good time in the 40 yard dash at 4.59. Scouts say he reminds them of Jamal Lewis. The red flag on Wells is in the Rose Bowl he did not perform well. Last year another Ohio State product also did the same (Vern Gholsten) and went on to have a bad year. Because of his size he may be the first back selected in the draft.

 Mike Goodson Texas A and M- He ran a 4.54 in the 40 and played very well in his last season.

 So a running back by an NFL team will be in the eye of the beholder and what each team thinks is the best value on their board.

Tight Ends-

There are lots of quality tight ends but many had injuries last year but all should be fine for the 2009 season. Only one is a junior. Some ran some very impressive times at the combine. There will be good value at these positions and many will come off the board in rounds two and three.

The top five rated tight ends are Brandon Pettigrew Oklahoma State everyone’s top rated player at his position. He did not come in top 10 in 40 yard dash times but has good size can block as well as catch and will be a good player in the NFL for many years,

The second highest rated tight end is Shawn Nelson Southern Mississippi. He is more of a speed, pass catching tight end with his 40 time coming in at 4.56. He will be drafted by a passing team instead of a running, ball control team.
Our third highest rated tight end Cornelius Ingram Florida another speed type end running a 4.68 40 yard dash.

James Casey from Rice is the only junior in the top group. He is considered the true sleeper of the group and may not get drafted until round three.
The last of the time five is Chase Coffman of Missouri. Some scouts have him in the top three. Other tight ends that ran well in the 40 yard dash included:

Jared Cook tops 40 times at 4.5 Shawn Nelson second at 4.56, Cameron Morrah at 4.68.

There are three fullbacks this year that are worth noting but all should be day two rounds 4-7 selections.

 They are Tony Fiammett SYR, Quninn Johnson LSU and Brannan Southerland Georgia.
 
That covers all the skilled positions in the draft.

THE OFFENSIVE LINE

CENTERS- Some outstanding centers are in this draft and d some guards that also can play center positions also. They are at center:

Max Unger Oregon- Eric Wood Louisville, Alex Mack California, A Q Shipley Penn State and Antoine Caldwell Alabama. The rule that most NFL teams follow in drafting centers is not before the third round but late second round with this quality group may be seen coming off the draft board. Especially centers that also can start at guard in the NFL.

GUARDS- Andy Levitre Ore State, Duke Robinson Oklahoma, Kraig Urbik Wisconsin, Tyrone Green Auburn and Herman Johnson LSU.

OFFENSIVE TACKLES- Of course the second big story of the combine besides  Michael  Crabtree’s injured foot was the disappointing actions of one of if not the highest rated offensive tackle Andre Smith of Alabama not working out, admitting he was not in shape and going home early without talking to any teams. Now the next question will be, will he workout at his college work day ( if Alabama who dropped him from the team allows him to workout  with other Alabama players at their school) and what teams in the top 15 will take a chance on him? At his height, weight (322) and skill level he is considered a top prospect to be a star left tackle in the NFL but is he a big gamble especially in the top 10 players chosen giving him millions of dollars and not knowing what he might do next He may be the most intriguing draft day selection.

Teams are in disagreement of who is really the best tackle in this years draft.

Most teams are leaning toward Jason Smith of Baylor after combine workouts but f Eugene Monroe of VA is right there at the top with him. Unlike Andre Smith  that was a junior and got thrown off his team and had to enter this draft the two top rated tackles that did workout at the combine are both seniors Jason smith was also the fourth best in the 225lb bench press with 33 reps and Monroe was not in the top ten that had 30 as the lowest reps in that group.
 
Other top tackles in this draft include:

Michael Other Mississippi that did not have his best performance at the combine and Eben Britten of Arizona another junior coming out early.
 
The top bench press numbers at 225 lbs were:

1. Louis Vasquez 39 reps
2. Travis Bright   34
3Juan Garcia       34
4. Alex Boone       34
5. A J Shipley      34
6. Jason Smith    33
7, Robby Felix    33
8. Jon Cooper      31
 
That concludes all offensive performers at the combine.
 

1.28.09

The year of the Quarterback?
by Stephen Hasenzahl

With big names like; Stafford, White, Harrell, McCoy, Sanchez, and Daniel ready to step to the NFL. Who will continue the tradition?

It seems like last year was the year of first timers in the NFL. Joe Flacco helping take the Ravens deep into the playoffs, only to falter in then end. Flacco was far from impressive though, finishing the regular season with a below average 80.3 qb rating, completing 60% of his passes and only throwing 14 touchdowns (to go along with his 12 INT's). Doing even worse in the playoffs with a 50.8 qb rating and competing less than half of his passes. Another first timer was Matt Ryan, who completed 61.1% of his passes in the regular season and boasting an 87.7 qb rating. He somewhat kept the worst-to-first tradition in the NFC south, by getting his team to the playoffs, but not winning the division.

The more productive of first timers were Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassell, while neither of the two made the playoffs, it was far from these guys fault. Rodgers finished sixth in the NFL in qb ratings while completing 63.6% of his passes. Rodgers threw for 28 touchdowns, unlike the man that he sat behind, that man did lead the NFL in a stat though, most INT's thrown (22). On the other hand, Cassell was ready for a playoff run, but Miami killed his chance. Cassell had an 89.4 rating and threw for 21 touchdowns. Cassell had back-to-back 400+ yard games and raised his stock all season.

Back to the draft, Stafford and Sanchez seem to be the two most talked about QB's in the draft. But what ever happened to Harrell? He lost one game and his Heisman hopes went down the drain. What about Pat White? Did everyone forget about this guy? McCoy? He was a Heisman finalist, and in last years winner's eyes should of received the award. And most shocking maybe is Chase Daniel.

Looking deep into it:
                                           Rating        Completion           TD       INT
Matthew Stafford (UGA)       153.5             61.36                 25         10
Mark Sanchez (USC)             164.6             65.85                 34         10
Colt McCoy (Texas)              173.8          76.67                 34         8
Chase Daniel (Mizzou)          159.4             72.92                 39         18
Graham Harrell (TT)               160.0             70.61                 45         9
Pat White (WVU)                   142.3             65.69                 21         7
David Johnson (Tulsa)            178.7             64.50                46         18
Chase Clemet (Rice)               163.9             66.53                44          7

I know everyone is saying about Stafford playing in a "pro" offense, but his numbers aren't mind boggling. Sanchez? Seriously, this guy played one season. Look at the last USC QB's taken, what the hell are they doing now?

McCoy and White are probably the two most exciting as fans to watch. And with McCoy's numbers how can he not be in the top 10? He has experience, he has an arm, and he's got the talent. Will that transfer to the NFL?

That's for us as fans to wait and find out. With the draft still months away, the order's are bound to change.

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